Soultan, Alaaeldin,Wikelski, Martin,Safi, Kamran
Risk of biodiversity collapse under climate change in the Afro-Arabian region Journal Article
In: Scientific Reports, vol. 9, no. 236, pp. 955, 2019, ISBN: 2045-2322.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Arabia, Arabian Gulf, Arabian Sea, biodiversity, Climate change, conservation status, extinction, IUCN Red List, Threat assessment
@article{,
title = {Risk of biodiversity collapse under climate change in the Afro-Arabian region},
author = {Soultan, Alaaeldin,Wikelski, Martin,Safi, Kamran},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-37851-6},
issn = {2045-2322},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-01-01},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
volume = {9},
number = {236},
pages = {955},
abstract = {For 107 endemic mammal species in the Afro-Arabian region, Sahara-Sahel and Arabian Desert, we used ensemble species distribution models to: (1) identify the hotspot areas for conservation, (2) assess the potential impact of the projected climate change on the distribution of the focal species, and (3) assign IUCN threat categories for the focal species according to the predicted changes in their potential distribution range. We identified two main hotspot areas for endemic mammals: the Sinai and its surrounding coastal area in the East, and the Mediterranean Coast around Morocco in the West. Alarmingly, our results indicate that about 17% of the endemic mammals in the Afro-Arabian region under the current climate change scenarios could go extinct before 2050. Overall, a substantial number of the endemic species will change from the IUCN threat category “Least Concern” to “Critically Endangered” or “Extinct” in the coming decades. Accordingly, we call for implementing an urgent proactive conservation action for these endemic species, particularly those that face a high risk of extinction in the next few years. The results of our study provide conservation managers and practitioners with the required information for implementing an effective conservation plan to protect the biodiversity of the Afro-Arabian region.},
keywords = {Arabia, Arabian Gulf, Arabian Sea, biodiversity, Climate change, conservation status, extinction, IUCN Red List, Threat assessment},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
For 107 endemic mammal species in the Afro-Arabian region, Sahara-Sahel and Arabian Desert, we used ensemble species distribution models to: (1) identify the hotspot areas for conservation, (2) assess the potential impact of the projected climate change on the distribution of the focal species, and (3) assign IUCN threat categories for the focal species according to the predicted changes in their potential distribution range. We identified two main hotspot areas for endemic mammals: the Sinai and its surrounding coastal area in the East, and the Mediterranean Coast around Morocco in the West. Alarmingly, our results indicate that about 17% of the endemic mammals in the Afro-Arabian region under the current climate change scenarios could go extinct before 2050. Overall, a substantial number of the endemic species will change from the IUCN threat category “Least Concern” to “Critically Endangered” or “Extinct” in the coming decades. Accordingly, we call for implementing an urgent proactive conservation action for these endemic species, particularly those that face a high risk of extinction in the next few years. The results of our study provide conservation managers and practitioners with the required information for implementing an effective conservation plan to protect the biodiversity of the Afro-Arabian region.
Wabnitz, Colette C. C.,Lam, Vicky W. Y.,Reygondeau, Gabriel,Teh, Lydia C. L.,Al-Abdulrazzak, Dalal,Khalfallah, Myriam,Pauly, Daniel,Palomares, Maria L. Deng,Zeller, Dirk,Cheung, William W. L.
Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, fisheries and society in the Arabian Gulf Journal Article
In: PLOS ONE, vol. 13, no. 494, pp. e0194537, 2018.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Arabia, Arabian Gulf, Arabian Sea, biodiversity, Climate change, diversity, economic impact, Fisheries, Persian Gulf, Sea of Oman
@article{,
title = {Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, fisheries and society in the Arabian Gulf},
author = {Wabnitz, Colette C. C.,Lam, Vicky W. Y.,Reygondeau, Gabriel,Teh, Lydia C. L.,Al-Abdulrazzak, Dalal,Khalfallah, Myriam,Pauly, Daniel,Palomares, Maria L. Deng,Zeller, Dirk,Cheung, William W. L.},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194537},
year = {2018},
date = {2018-01-01},
journal = {PLOS ONE},
volume = {13},
number = {494},
pages = {e0194537},
publisher = {Public Library of Science},
abstract = {Climate change–reflected in significant environmental changes such as warming, sea level rise, shifts in salinity, oxygen and other ocean conditions–is expected to impact marine organisms and associated fisheries. This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts on, and the vulnerability of, marine biodiversity and fisheries catches in the Arabian Gulf under climate change. To this end, using three separate niche modelling approaches under a ‘business-as-usual’ climate change scenario, we projected the future habitat suitability of the Arabian Gulf (also known as the Persian Gulf) for 55 expert-identified priority species, including charismatic and non-fish species. Second, we conducted a vulnerability assessment of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries. The modelling outputs suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of initial species richness) by 2090 relative to 2010. Spatially, projected local extinctions are highest in the southwestern part of the Gulf, off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While the projected patterns provided useful indicators of potential climate change impacts on the region’s diversity, the magnitude of changes in habitat suitability are more uncertain. Fisheries-specific results suggested reduced future catch potential for several countries on the western side of the Gulf, with projections differing only slightly among models. Qatar and the UAE were particularly affected, with more than a 26% drop in future fish catch potential. Integrating changes in catch potential with socio-economic indicators suggested the fisheries of Bahrain and Iran may be most vulnerable to climate change. We discuss limitations of the indicators and the methods used, as well as the implications of our overall findings for conservation and fisheries management policies in the region.},
keywords = {Arabia, Arabian Gulf, Arabian Sea, biodiversity, Climate change, diversity, economic impact, Fisheries, Persian Gulf, Sea of Oman},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Climate change–reflected in significant environmental changes such as warming, sea level rise, shifts in salinity, oxygen and other ocean conditions–is expected to impact marine organisms and associated fisheries. This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts on, and the vulnerability of, marine biodiversity and fisheries catches in the Arabian Gulf under climate change. To this end, using three separate niche modelling approaches under a ‘business-as-usual’ climate change scenario, we projected the future habitat suitability of the Arabian Gulf (also known as the Persian Gulf) for 55 expert-identified priority species, including charismatic and non-fish species. Second, we conducted a vulnerability assessment of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries. The modelling outputs suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of initial species richness) by 2090 relative to 2010. Spatially, projected local extinctions are highest in the southwestern part of the Gulf, off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While the projected patterns provided useful indicators of potential climate change impacts on the region’s diversity, the magnitude of changes in habitat suitability are more uncertain. Fisheries-specific results suggested reduced future catch potential for several countries on the western side of the Gulf, with projections differing only slightly among models. Qatar and the UAE were particularly affected, with more than a 26% drop in future fish catch potential. Integrating changes in catch potential with socio-economic indicators suggested the fisheries of Bahrain and Iran may be most vulnerable to climate change. We discuss limitations of the indicators and the methods used, as well as the implications of our overall findings for conservation and fisheries management policies in the region.
Thomas, Peter O.,Reeves, Randall R.,Brownell, Robert L.
Status of the world's baleen whales Journal Article
In: Marine Mammal Science, no. 242, 2015, ISBN: 1748-7692.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: anthropogenic noise, baleen whales, blue whales, Bycatch, cetaceans, Climate change, Endangered species, Entanglement, IUCN, ocean acidification, Red List, ship strike, status, whaling
@article{,
title = {Status of the world's baleen whales},
author = {Thomas, Peter O.,Reeves, Randall R.,Brownell, Robert L.},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/mms.12281},
issn = {1748-7692},
year = {2015},
date = {2015-01-01},
journal = {Marine Mammal Science},
number = {242},
abstract = {No global synthesis of the status of baleen whales has been published since the 2008 IUCN Red List assessments. Many populations remain at low numbers from historical commercial whaling, which had ceased for all but a few by 1989. Fishing gear entanglement and ship strikes are the most severe current threats. The acute and long-term effects of anthropogenic noise and the cumulative effects of multiple stressors are of concern but poorly understood. The looming consequences of climate change and ocean acidification remain difficult to characterize. North Atlantic and North Pacific right whales are among the species listed as Endangered. Southern right, bowhead, and gray whales have been assessed as Least Concern but some subpopulations of these species - western North Pacific gray whales, Chile-Peru right whales, and Svalbard/Barents Sea and Sea of Okhotsk bowhead whales - remain at low levels and are either Endangered or Critically Endangered. Eastern North Pacific blue whales have reportedly recovered, but Antarctic blue whales remain at about 1% of pre-exploitation levels. Small isolated subspecies or subpopulations, such as northern Indian Ocean blue whales, Arabian Sea humpback whales, and Mediterranean Sea fin whales are threatened while most subpopulations of sei, Bryde's, and Omura's whales are inadequately monitored and difficult to assess.},
keywords = {anthropogenic noise, baleen whales, blue whales, Bycatch, cetaceans, Climate change, Endangered species, Entanglement, IUCN, ocean acidification, Red List, ship strike, status, whaling},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
No global synthesis of the status of baleen whales has been published since the 2008 IUCN Red List assessments. Many populations remain at low numbers from historical commercial whaling, which had ceased for all but a few by 1989. Fishing gear entanglement and ship strikes are the most severe current threats. The acute and long-term effects of anthropogenic noise and the cumulative effects of multiple stressors are of concern but poorly understood. The looming consequences of climate change and ocean acidification remain difficult to characterize. North Atlantic and North Pacific right whales are among the species listed as Endangered. Southern right, bowhead, and gray whales have been assessed as Least Concern but some subpopulations of these species - western North Pacific gray whales, Chile-Peru right whales, and Svalbard/Barents Sea and Sea of Okhotsk bowhead whales - remain at low levels and are either Endangered or Critically Endangered. Eastern North Pacific blue whales have reportedly recovered, but Antarctic blue whales remain at about 1% of pre-exploitation levels. Small isolated subspecies or subpopulations, such as northern Indian Ocean blue whales, Arabian Sea humpback whales, and Mediterranean Sea fin whales are threatened while most subpopulations of sei, Bryde's, and Omura's whales are inadequately monitored and difficult to assess.
Al-Azri, Adnan R,Piontkovski, Sergey A,Al-Hashmi, Khalid A,Goes, Joaquim I,Gomes, Helga do R
Recent outbreaks of harmful algal blooms along the coast of Oman: possible response to climate change? Book
Springer, 2010.
Abstract | BibTeX | Tags: Arabian Sea, Climate change, Harmful Algal Bloom, Hydro-biology, oceanography, Oman, Sea of Oman
@book{,
title = {Recent outbreaks of harmful algal blooms along the coast of Oman: possible response to climate change?},
author = {Al-Azri, Adnan R,Piontkovski, Sergey A,Al-Hashmi, Khalid A,Goes, Joaquim I,Gomes, Helga do R},
year = {2010},
date = {2010-01-01},
journal = {Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change},
number = {3},
pages = {349-357},
publisher = {Springer},
abstract = {Observations of phytoplankton communities in the coastal region of Oman indicate
that prominent temporal and spatial variability associated with changes in environmental
conditions is brought about by the reversal of the monsoonal cycle. The close
relationship between environmental conditions and phytoplankton communitystructure suggests that any alterations in the monsoon periodicity or its intensity
could have a large influence on phytoplankton communities, with potentially large
impacts on the fisheries resources of Oman in-turn. In the light of the evidence by
Goes et al. (2005), coastal upwelling along the coasts of Somalia, Oman, and
Yemen is intensifying as a result of climate change; our observations assume
tremendous significance impact of climate change in the coastal water of Oman.
The role of cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies in the spatial and temporal abundance
of phytoplankton communities and the changes in dissolved oxygen in the coastal
water of Oman are yet to be investigated.},
keywords = {Arabian Sea, Climate change, Harmful Algal Bloom, Hydro-biology, oceanography, Oman, Sea of Oman},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {book}
}
Observations of phytoplankton communities in the coastal region of Oman indicate
that prominent temporal and spatial variability associated with changes in environmental
conditions is brought about by the reversal of the monsoonal cycle. The close
relationship between environmental conditions and phytoplankton communitystructure suggests that any alterations in the monsoon periodicity or its intensity
could have a large influence on phytoplankton communities, with potentially large
impacts on the fisheries resources of Oman in-turn. In the light of the evidence by
Goes et al. (2005), coastal upwelling along the coasts of Somalia, Oman, and
Yemen is intensifying as a result of climate change; our observations assume
tremendous significance impact of climate change in the coastal water of Oman.
The role of cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies in the spatial and temporal abundance
of phytoplankton communities and the changes in dissolved oxygen in the coastal
water of Oman are yet to be investigated.
that prominent temporal and spatial variability associated with changes in environmental
conditions is brought about by the reversal of the monsoonal cycle. The close
relationship between environmental conditions and phytoplankton communitystructure suggests that any alterations in the monsoon periodicity or its intensity
could have a large influence on phytoplankton communities, with potentially large
impacts on the fisheries resources of Oman in-turn. In the light of the evidence by
Goes et al. (2005), coastal upwelling along the coasts of Somalia, Oman, and
Yemen is intensifying as a result of climate change; our observations assume
tremendous significance impact of climate change in the coastal water of Oman.
The role of cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies in the spatial and temporal abundance
of phytoplankton communities and the changes in dissolved oxygen in the coastal
water of Oman are yet to be investigated.
Kundzewicz, Z. W.,Mata, L. J.,Arnell, N. W.,Doll, P.,Jimenez, B.,Miller, K.,Oki, T.,Sen, Z.,Shiklomanov, I.
The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management Journal Article
In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol. 53, no. 396, pp. 3-10, 2008.
BibTeX | Tags: Climate change, Freshwater, river ecosystem
@article{,
title = {The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management},
author = {Kundzewicz, Z. W.,Mata, L. J.,Arnell, N. W.,Doll, P.,Jimenez, B.,Miller, K.,Oki, T.,Sen, Z.,Shiklomanov, I.},
year = {2008},
date = {2008-01-01},
journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
volume = {53},
number = {396},
pages = {3-10},
keywords = {Climate change, Freshwater, river ecosystem},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Goes, Joaquim I,Thoppil, Prasad G,do R Gomes, Helga,Fasullo, John T
Warming of the Eurasian landmass is making the Arabian Sea more productive Journal Article
In: Science, vol. 308, no. 379, pp. 545-547, 2005, ISBN: 0036-8075.
Abstract | BibTeX | Tags: Arabian Sea, Climate change, monsoon, Oman, productivity, Upwelling
@article{,
title = {Warming of the Eurasian landmass is making the Arabian Sea more productive},
author = {Goes, Joaquim I,Thoppil, Prasad G,do R Gomes, Helga,Fasullo, John T},
issn = {0036-8075},
year = {2005},
date = {2005-01-01},
journal = {Science},
volume = {308},
number = {379},
pages = {545-547},
abstract = {The recent trend of declining winter and spring snow cover over Eurasia is
causing a land-ocean thermal gradient that is particularly favorable to stronger
southwest (summer) monsoon winds. Since 1997, sea surface winds have been
strengthening over the western Arabian Sea. This escalation in the intensity of
summer monsoon winds, accompanied by enhanced upwelling and an increase
of more than 350% in average summertime phytoplankton biomass along the
coast and over 300% offshore, raises the possibility that the current warming
trend of the Eurasian landmass is making the Arabian Sea more productive.},
keywords = {Arabian Sea, Climate change, monsoon, Oman, productivity, Upwelling},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The recent trend of declining winter and spring snow cover over Eurasia is
causing a land-ocean thermal gradient that is particularly favorable to stronger
southwest (summer) monsoon winds. Since 1997, sea surface winds have been
strengthening over the western Arabian Sea. This escalation in the intensity of
summer monsoon winds, accompanied by enhanced upwelling and an increase
of more than 350% in average summertime phytoplankton biomass along the
coast and over 300% offshore, raises the possibility that the current warming
trend of the Eurasian landmass is making the Arabian Sea more productive.
causing a land-ocean thermal gradient that is particularly favorable to stronger
southwest (summer) monsoon winds. Since 1997, sea surface winds have been
strengthening over the western Arabian Sea. This escalation in the intensity of
summer monsoon winds, accompanied by enhanced upwelling and an increase
of more than 350% in average summertime phytoplankton biomass along the
coast and over 300% offshore, raises the possibility that the current warming
trend of the Eurasian landmass is making the Arabian Sea more productive.